Friday Picks

At end of day 6/12/2009:

The market conditions show signs of momentum trading in short stocks and swing trading on higher priced stocks. I wonder about the implications are as to market psychology??? Seems interesting!

Market Monitor
---------------------------------------------------------
Trin (Up/Down) 0.640220380161126
Market Val Change $-78,309,156
Number of stocks up 4% plus breakout on high volume 51
Number of stocks down 4% plus breakout on high volume 51
Number of stocks up 4% plus down move on high volume 5
Number of stocks down 4% plus up move on high volume 35
Number of stocks up 25% or more in past quarter 2961
Number of stocks down 25% or more in past quarter 62
Number of stocks up 50% or more in past month 74
Number of stocks down 50% or more in past month 3
Number of stocks up 25% or more in past month 351
Number of stocks down 25% or more in past month 35
Number of stocks up 100% or more from year low 1273
Number of stocks down 100% or more from year high 1438
Number of stocks up 200% or more from year low 398
Number of stocks down 200% or more from year high 613
Number of stocks up 4% plus and up 100% or more from year low 53
Number of stocks down 4% plus and down 100% or more from year high 83
Number of stocks up 4% plus and up 200% or more from year low 25
Number of stocks down 4% plus and down 200% or more from year high 51
Number of stocks down at year high 71
Number of stocks down at year low 44

+EPCT, EPICEPT CORPORATI (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $0.95 - $0.84
_ETFC, E*TRADE FINL CORP (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $1.97 - $1.67
_NVS, NOVARTIS AG ADS (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $41.95 - $41.43
+*VMC, VULCAN MATERIALS (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $47.2 - $42.93

Thursday Picks

The market conditions indicate an upward market with buying on weakness and selling on strength. These are ideal conditions for swing traders.

Market Monitor
---------------------------------------------------------
Trin (Up/Down) 3.43260660694822
Market Val Change $2,132,682,334
Number of stocks up 4% plus breakout on high volume 114
Number of stocks down 4% plus breakout on high volume 42
Number of stocks up 4% plus down move on high volume 9
Number of stocks down 4% plus up move on high volume 26
Number of stocks up 25% or more in past quarter 2963
Number of stocks down 25% or more in past quarter 64
Number of stocks up 50% or more in past month 73
Number of stocks down 50% or more in past month 4
Number of stocks up 25% or more in past month 340
Number of stocks down 25% or more in past month 50
Number of stocks up 100% or more from year low 1278
Number of stocks down 100% or more from year high 1437
Number of stocks up 200% or more from year low 409
Number of stocks down 200% or more from year high 609
Number of stocks up 4% plus and up 100% or more from year low 103
Number of stocks down 4% plus and down 100% or more from year high 55
Number of stocks up 4% plus and up 200% or more from year low 48
Number of stocks down 4% plus and down 200% or more from year high 37
Number of stocks down at year high 92
Number of stocks down at year low 50

_ABR, ARBOR REALTY TR (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $2.06 - $1.59
!BCSI, BLUE COAT SYS INC (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $16.55 - $15.9
+BX, THE BLACKSTONE GR (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $11.74 - $10.98
_CDNS, CADENCE DESIGN SY (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $6.35 - $5.93
_@CHDX, CHINDEX INTL INC (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $14.19 - $12.5
+_!EMKR, EMCORE CORP (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $1.43 - $1.25
_ENT, ENTERRA EN TR (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $1.73 - $1.46
+*GABC, GERMAN AMER BNCP (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $14.48 - $13.7
+_ICO, INTERNATIONAL COA (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $3.55 - $3.39
_*KSU, KANSAS CITY SOUTH (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $16.6 - $16.09
_KWK, QUICKSILVER RES I (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $13.18 - $11.92
_MEA, METALICO INC (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $3.58 - $3.02
+NOOF, NEW FRONTIER MEDI (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $2.71 - $2.39
_NPSP, NPS PHARM INC (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $4.44 - $4.01
+_*!OMNI, OMNI ENERGY SVCS (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $2.56 - $2.35
ORCC, ONLINE RESOURCES (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $6.17 - $5.77
+!PALM, PALM INC (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $13.43 - $12.31
@PLXS, PLEXUS CP (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $22.94 - $21.9
_RX, IMS HEALTH INC (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $12.49 - $11.9
+SCHS, SCHOOL SPECIALTY (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $22.35 - $21.36
_*@SEH, SPARTECH CP (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $7.8 - $6.4
+_**!SGY, STONE ENERGY CP (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $8.95 - $8.4
_!^SYUT, SYNUTRA INTERNATI (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $11.35 - $10
+_TGC, TENGASCO INC (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $0.75 - $0.65
+**!UBET, YOUBET.COM INC (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $2.83 - $2.61
+**VIVO, MERIDIAN BIOSCIEN (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $20.09 - $18.64

Back to it, Thursday Posts

The stock market overall has gained momentum as evident in the market monitor. I'll spend a moment to explain this:

Market Monitor
---------------------------------------------------------
Trin (Up/Down) 0.4970198422257
Market Val Change $-65,877,870
Number of stocks up 4% plus breakout on high volume 98
Number of stocks down 4% plus breakout on high volume 149
Number of stocks up 4% plus down move on high volume 14
Number of stocks down 4% plus up move on high volume 84
Number of stocks up 25% or more in past quarter 3200
Number of stocks down 25% or more in past quarter 64
Number of stocks up 50% or more in past month 58
Number of stocks down 50% or more in past month 4
Number of stocks up 25% or more in past month 259
Number of stocks down 25% or more in past month 71
Number of stocks up 100% or more from year low 1252
Number of stocks down 100% or more from year high 1458
Number of stocks up 200% or more from year low 395
Number of stocks down 200% or more from year high 632
Number of stocks up 4% plus and up 100% or more from year low 94
Number of stocks down 4% plus and down 100% or more from year high 150
Number of stocks up 4% plus and up 200% or more from year low 46
Number of stocks down 4% plus and down 200% or more from year high 89
Number of stocks down at year high 76
Number of stocks down at year low 48

If you focus on the first 5 lines, the trin indicates a daily weakness. A value less than 0.5 means that more than two stocks are down for every stock that is up. In fact, there are 50% more stocks down on high volume than there are up on high volume. However, the previous month clearly shows strength. For momentum traders, this is a sign of temporary weakness. For swing traders, this is a sign of volatility changes. You must decide which of these types of trades you are interested in.

The overall stock watch list for tomorrow is:
Generic Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------
+_*!ANN, ANNTAYLOR STORES (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $7.4 - $7.12
_ATPG, ATP OIL & GAS COR (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $9.27 - $9.03
_AXL, AMER AXLE&MFG HLD (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $4.5 - $3.8
BVF, BIOVAIL CORP (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $12.62 - $11.93
_!CBG, CB RICHARD ELLIS (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $9.25 - $8.5
+_!CDIC, CARDIODYNAMICS IN (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $1.32 - $1.29
+_!CEP, CONSTELLATION ENE (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $3.96 - $3.73
_CTCM, CTC MEDIA (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $12.76 - $12.35
+_ESLR, EVERGREEN SOLAR I (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $2.51 - $2.05
_HAR, HARMAN INTL INDS (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $21.95 - $20.54
+_IPAR, INTER PARFUMS INC (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $8.69 - $8.6
_IVN, IVANHOE MINES LTD (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $6.43 - $6.26
+_*!JMBA, JAMBA (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $1.15 - $1.02
_@JRS, NUVEEN RL EST INC (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $7.58 - $6.76
_JTX, JACKSON HEWITT TA (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $7.48 - $6.55
+_!KV-A, K V PHARMA CL A (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $2.43 - $1.72
_@LDK, LDK SOLAR CO ADR (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $13.9 - $11.71
_LEA, LEAR CORP. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $2.06 - $1.68
_LULU, No Name Available (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $15.22 - $14.69
+_LVLT, LEVEL 3 COMM INC (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $1.33 - $1.08
_MIC, MACQUARIE INFRAST (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $4.2 - $3.68
NDN, 99C ONLY STORES (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $12.61 - $11.27
_OSG, OVERSEAS SHIPHDLG (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $41.36 - $36.16
_OXM, OXFORD INDS (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $13.36 - $12.38
_SAY, SATYAM COMPUTER S (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $4.94 - $3.95
+*!@THO, THOR INDS INC (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $22.74 - $21.35
_TRW, TRW AUTOMOTIVE HL (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $10.88 - $10.25
_ZEUS, OLYMPIC STEEL INC (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $24.27 - $22.1

Now to sort these stocks - Momentum trades according to the AAII browne technique:
_ATPG, ATP OIL & GAS COR (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $9.27 - $9.03
_!CBG, CB RICHARD ELLIS (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $9.25 - $8.5
+_ESLR, EVERGREEN SOLAR I (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $2.51 - $2.05
_LEA, LEAR CORP. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $2.06 - $1.68
+_LVLT, LEVEL 3 COMM INC (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $1.33 - $1.08
_MIC, MACQUARIE INFRAST (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $4.2 - $3.68
_OSG, OVERSEAS SHIPHDLG (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $41.36 - $36.16
+*!@THO, THOR INDS INC (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $22.74 - $21.35

Swing Trades -
ANN
BVF
ESLR
IVN
JMBA
LEA
LVLT

Of all these, the best market timing setups (IMHO) seem to favor swing traders in the current market:
ANN (long term)
BVF (mid term)
ESLR (short term)
IVN (mid term)
JMBA (long term)
JTX (mid term)
LDK (short term)
LEA (mid term)
MIC (mid term)

I don't plan any new trades for at least a few days. I only have three open positions in SCS, TBBK which were mid term trades and UNG a longer term trade.