Back to it, Thursday Posts

The stock market overall has gained momentum as evident in the market monitor. I'll spend a moment to explain this:

Market Monitor
---------------------------------------------------------
Trin (Up/Down) 0.4970198422257
Market Val Change $-65,877,870
Number of stocks up 4% plus breakout on high volume 98
Number of stocks down 4% plus breakout on high volume 149
Number of stocks up 4% plus down move on high volume 14
Number of stocks down 4% plus up move on high volume 84
Number of stocks up 25% or more in past quarter 3200
Number of stocks down 25% or more in past quarter 64
Number of stocks up 50% or more in past month 58
Number of stocks down 50% or more in past month 4
Number of stocks up 25% or more in past month 259
Number of stocks down 25% or more in past month 71
Number of stocks up 100% or more from year low 1252
Number of stocks down 100% or more from year high 1458
Number of stocks up 200% or more from year low 395
Number of stocks down 200% or more from year high 632
Number of stocks up 4% plus and up 100% or more from year low 94
Number of stocks down 4% plus and down 100% or more from year high 150
Number of stocks up 4% plus and up 200% or more from year low 46
Number of stocks down 4% plus and down 200% or more from year high 89
Number of stocks down at year high 76
Number of stocks down at year low 48

If you focus on the first 5 lines, the trin indicates a daily weakness. A value less than 0.5 means that more than two stocks are down for every stock that is up. In fact, there are 50% more stocks down on high volume than there are up on high volume. However, the previous month clearly shows strength. For momentum traders, this is a sign of temporary weakness. For swing traders, this is a sign of volatility changes. You must decide which of these types of trades you are interested in.

The overall stock watch list for tomorrow is:
Generic Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------
+_*!ANN, ANNTAYLOR STORES (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $7.4 - $7.12
_ATPG, ATP OIL & GAS COR (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $9.27 - $9.03
_AXL, AMER AXLE&MFG HLD (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $4.5 - $3.8
BVF, BIOVAIL CORP (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $12.62 - $11.93
_!CBG, CB RICHARD ELLIS (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $9.25 - $8.5
+_!CDIC, CARDIODYNAMICS IN (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $1.32 - $1.29
+_!CEP, CONSTELLATION ENE (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $3.96 - $3.73
_CTCM, CTC MEDIA (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $12.76 - $12.35
+_ESLR, EVERGREEN SOLAR I (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $2.51 - $2.05
_HAR, HARMAN INTL INDS (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $21.95 - $20.54
+_IPAR, INTER PARFUMS INC (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $8.69 - $8.6
_IVN, IVANHOE MINES LTD (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $6.43 - $6.26
+_*!JMBA, JAMBA (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $1.15 - $1.02
_@JRS, NUVEEN RL EST INC (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $7.58 - $6.76
_JTX, JACKSON HEWITT TA (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $7.48 - $6.55
+_!KV-A, K V PHARMA CL A (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $2.43 - $1.72
_@LDK, LDK SOLAR CO ADR (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $13.9 - $11.71
_LEA, LEAR CORP. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $2.06 - $1.68
_LULU, No Name Available (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $15.22 - $14.69
+_LVLT, LEVEL 3 COMM INC (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $1.33 - $1.08
_MIC, MACQUARIE INFRAST (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $4.2 - $3.68
NDN, 99C ONLY STORES (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $12.61 - $11.27
_OSG, OVERSEAS SHIPHDLG (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $41.36 - $36.16
_OXM, OXFORD INDS (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $13.36 - $12.38
_SAY, SATYAM COMPUTER S (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $4.94 - $3.95
+*!@THO, THOR INDS INC (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $22.74 - $21.35
_TRW, TRW AUTOMOTIVE HL (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $10.88 - $10.25
_ZEUS, OLYMPIC STEEL INC (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $24.27 - $22.1

Now to sort these stocks - Momentum trades according to the AAII browne technique:
_ATPG, ATP OIL & GAS COR (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $9.27 - $9.03
_!CBG, CB RICHARD ELLIS (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $9.25 - $8.5
+_ESLR, EVERGREEN SOLAR I (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $2.51 - $2.05
_LEA, LEAR CORP. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $2.06 - $1.68
+_LVLT, LEVEL 3 COMM INC (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $1.33 - $1.08
_MIC, MACQUARIE INFRAST (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $4.2 - $3.68
_OSG, OVERSEAS SHIPHDLG (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $41.36 - $36.16
+*!@THO, THOR INDS INC (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $22.74 - $21.35

Swing Trades -
ANN
BVF
ESLR
IVN
JMBA
LEA
LVLT

Of all these, the best market timing setups (IMHO) seem to favor swing traders in the current market:
ANN (long term)
BVF (mid term)
ESLR (short term)
IVN (mid term)
JMBA (long term)
JTX (mid term)
LDK (short term)
LEA (mid term)
MIC (mid term)

I don't plan any new trades for at least a few days. I only have three open positions in SCS, TBBK which were mid term trades and UNG a longer term trade.