Friday Picks
At end of day 4/24/2009:
Market Monitor
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Trin (Up/Down) 10.5059765122408
Market Val Change $6,113,391,812
Number of stocks up 4% plus breakout on high volume 230
Number of stocks down 4% plus breakout on high volume 32
Number of stocks up 4% plus down move on high volume 24
Number of stocks down 4% plus up move on high volume 13
Number of stocks up 25% or more in past quarter 817
Number of stocks down 25% or more in past quarter 277
Number of stocks up 50% or more in past month 224
Number of stocks down 50% or more in past month 5
Number of stocks up 25% or more in past month 811
Number of stocks down 25% or more in past month 33
Number of stocks up 100% or more from year low 689
Number of stocks down 100% or more from year high 2079
Number of stocks up 200% or more from year low 148
Number of stocks down 200% or more from year high 972
Number of stocks up 4% plus and up 100% or more from year low 216
Number of stocks down 4% plus and down 100% or more from year high 74
Number of stocks up 4% plus and up 200% or more from year low 56
Number of stocks down 4% plus and down 200% or more from year high 50
Number of stocks down at year high 49
Number of stocks down at year low 64
ACF, AMERICREDIT CP (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $10.56 - $9.44
+_AMGN, AMGEN (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $49.83 - $47.69
+*!CAKE, CHEESECAKE FACT (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $17.81 - $16.52
+_*CPHD, CEPHEID INC (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $8.27 - $6.93
+_!DFG, DELPHI FIN GRP IN (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $20.3 - $17.65
+_!EMN, EASTMAN CHEM CO (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $40.02 - $34.84
_FNB, F N B CP (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $7.68 - $6.76
+_*INFA, INFORMATICA CORP (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $16.21 - $15.11
+*JNPR, JUNIPER NETWORKS (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $22.33 - $21.08
+_!LEN, LENNAR CP CL A (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $9.97 - $8.78
+_MATW, MATTHEWS INTL CP (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $30.47 - $29.07
+*MSFT, MICROSOFT CP (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $20.91 - $19.5
+!NTY, N B T Y INC (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $24.18 - $21.51
_OFG, ORIENTAL FIN GROU (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $7.95 - $7.04
+OPLK, OPLINK COMMUNICAT (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $10.37 - $9.34
+*^*!RVBD, RIVERBED TECHNOLO (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $17.81 - $16.53
+STMP, STAMPS.COM INC (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $9.88 - $8.87
_!TTM, TATA MOTORS INC (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $7.59 - $7.29
+_!WL, WILMINGTON TRUST (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart) $14.17 - $11.64
From this list, my favorites are AMGN, FNB, WL
The restaurant sector is where you will see maximum earnings breakout in last few days. Earnings are much better than expected in the sector and sop the stocks are having explosive moves.
A good discussion from Stockbee regarding Market Timing:
One of the reason many people missed out on the market rally so far or got in late is because of lack of market timing model. Many people were very bearish and when the market turned they never believed in the rally. If you use a market timing model you can get in to such explosive moves.
Market Monitor is my market timing model. It uses market breadth for market timing. Market Timing models try to identify periods when it is favorable and unfavorable to invest in the market. The objective is to be aggressive during favorable periods and to be defensive and less invested during unfavorable period. It signaled a buy on 16th March, 5 days after the turn started. That was the signal to be aggressive and that helped catch many explosive moves in last month and half.
Different people use different approach to build market timing models. I have studied various timing systems over the years and they can be broadly classified as:
1. Monetary indicators: based on interest rates, bond yield, money supply , consumer debt, business debt, savings etc
2. Economic indicators: gdp growth rate, industrial production, inventory levels, retail sales, durables sales, new home building and so on.
3. Valuation Indicator: PE ratios, PS ratio , etc.
4. Sentiment Indicators: investor surveys, fund managers survey, cover pages, VIX, blogger survey
5. Cyclical Indicator: President cycles, 4 year cycles, best month, best week, best day, X day % change and so on
6. Technical Indicators: MA cross, chart patterns,
7. Breadth Indicators: number of stocks up or down %. Worden has wide range of breadth indicators under All Worden Indicators.
There are many Market Timing models in public domain. Some of the useful books to study market timing are:
Being Right or Making Money by Ned Davis can provide you a template for developing a Market Timing system.
The Hedge Fund Edge: Maximum Profit/Minimum Risk Global Trend Trading Strategies (Wiley Trading) by Mark Boucher has entire section on Market Timing models.
Similarly Martin Zweig in his book Martin Zweig Winning on Wall Street has extensive discussion on Market Timing.
Norman Fosback book Stock Market Logic is another good resource for Market Timing ideas.
The Complete Guide to Market Breadth Indicators by Gregory Morris.This book is very detailed book on market breadth.
Top Percent Gain Stocks (Weekly)
PMID 263.63636
HCFB.OB 81.65304
RCRC 55.09868
TIN 48.79357
LVS 47.51491
FDEF 46.88249
MCRI 46.20787
ELX 44.60028
GECR.OB 42.85714
TUC 38.50365
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Top Percent Loss Stocks (Weekly)
KNDL -58.13333
SOMC.OB -53.21429
ANDS -51.65017
BVBC.OB -37.5
SNV -37.2093
BLUD -32.22958
GRM -31.42857
CBC -30.6338
DFR -30.19231
FETM.OB -29.16667
posted by Larry @ 2:18 PM
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